The Anti-Manichaeist

As has been commented by my friend Matt, the successful vote in Iraq is being politicized by the right. Some claim that their Iraq strategy has been vindicated. I’m not doubting that it is a momentous occasion for the Iraqi people. I think its important that the whole story get told by the Iraqis. I recommend checking out some of the iraqi blogs linked to at the Iraq Blog Count and the kurdish view of things at kurdo’s world. Also consider signing this petition to give the Iraqi people their own country code Top Level Domain on the Internet.

As I understand it, our knowledge that Hussein was pursuing WMD-related capabilities did not justify the belief that he still had significant stockpiles of said WMDs and would not have been deterred by the threat of regime-change in Iraq. We had already set a precedent with Afghanistan that for a state to sponsor terrorist groups to use WMDs against the US would lead to its regime-change. There were other alternatives to immediate regime change and just continuing with the previous sanction-based approach. One obvious possibility would have been to improve our intelligence within Iraq, particularly regarding how the sanctions were working and by what means Hussein was able to pursue WMD-related capabilities. If we had uncovered that they were violating the oil-for-food agreements with extensive kick-back payments, this would have helped to build a case for regime-change if Hussein had not abdicated the throne.

We did have time on our side to court world-opinion on the need for multilateral int’l action against Iraq. According to Woodward’s interviews, the main contenders in the BushAdmin that Iraq posed an immediate threat to the US was Cheney et al, and the contention was based on relatively flimsy evidence that made Bush almost a skeptic until CIA director George Tenet assured him the WMDs was going to be a slam dunk. We know from the Kay report, that sanctions were making the Hussein regime unstable and had likely reduced their WMD-stockpiles. The reduced revenue and the regime’s extensive corruption were causing problems that would likely have eventually led to the end of Hussein’s regime.

And so, I’m sure the Iraqi people could have waited another year or so to be “liberated” if the act had been given more legitimacy by being approved of by most of the world and the liberation had been better planned with significantly more troops sent in to maintain order in Iraq. And so, I see no reason to give Bush any political points for this miracle of a relatively-peaceful election with a decent turn-out. It is the Iraqi people that deserve all the glory and praise.

dlw