A Pilgrim’s Digression

Comeday morm and, O, you’re vine! Sendday’s eve and, ah, you’re vinegar!

Sunday, 31 October 2004

Redskins fall to Packers, 28-14

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 5:15 pm

This is what I have become: someone who looks for signs and prophecies in football games, so untrustworthy have the polls and pols become.

This could be the first year that all the signs are wrong, however. There seems no way to predict what will happen in two days. On nothing more than a hunch, however, I am betting the election may not be as chaotic as it now appears it might be. I think CNN will call the election for Kerry sometime between around one A.M. That may be too optimistic, but I’m the kind of guy who believes in self-fulfilling prophecies. If one wants something strongly enough, it will happen.

On Meet the Press this morning, Tim Russert reviewed all of the most recent polls with three pollsters. All of the polls alternated between Kerry being up one point and Bush up one point, except for Newsweek, which had Bush up by about seven points. One pollster called it the East German judge of the polls.

I’d like to see Kerry defy all expectations and wipe Bush out in states where it was thought he did not stand a chance, like Virginia or Kentucky. It won’t happen, but if I had my fondest wish, that is what I’d like. As it is, I will settle for a clear victory, even if it is barely eked out.

Packers lead Redskins, 3-0

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 1:37 pm

All you Kerry supporters better be rooting for the Packers to beat the Redskins today. As the Post noted last week, the winner of the Redskins’ last home game before an election has correctly predicted the winner of the election since the 1930’s. If the Redskins win, the incumbent wins.

It’s only the first quarter, but the Packers are ahead so far. I have no interest in football, but today I am from Wisconsin. The Packers are a Wisconsin team, right?

Happy pumpkin day

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 1:04 pm

Here is a picture of Brendan with the jack o’lanterns we carved last weekend. I had hoped to take a better picture this weekend, but the weather was so warm this past week, the pumpkins have decayed much faster than usual.

Brendan and our jack o'lanterns

After we carved them, Brendan noted immediately that his and Mama’s were happy pumpkins, while mine was angry. I told Lynn if this were a novel, the pumpkins would symbolize the family dynamic. When I told her this story, my friend Dawn over at Jam on Bread said that this would indeed be a seminal moment in Brendan’s therapy experience later in life.

I like Brendan’s little pumpkin the best. His Mama carved it, and the eyes are different sizes and the grin is rather lopsided. It’s a cute jack o’lantern. Unfortunately, because of the warm weather, as I said, Brendan’s pumpkin decayed the fastest since it was the smallest. I threw it away last night after we lit the others, and so far Brendan hasn’t noticed.

Brendan and Lynn are both sick today, enough that I am wondering if we will be able to go out trick or treating tonight. Brendan was up at six this morning!!! much too early for Lynn and I. The end of daylight savings time meant he actually rose at five. Since about eleven thirty, he has been complaining of a tummy ache, so I ran him a hot bath, and afterwards, he and Lynn lay down on the bed together and went to sleep. For him to sleep during the day, he must really be ill. He is not running a fever, though.

Lynn has some kind of cold. Past two mornings, she has woken up unable to talk above a croak until she has downed a goodly quantity of liquids. Her chest hurts, but I think it’s from coughing.

So they are both trying to sleep off their sickness, and I hope they succeed. I can’t imagine staying in tonight. Even if I carry him, we’ll probably go out to a few houses on our street once it gets dark. I wouldn’t want Brendan to miss something he has been looking forward to for weeks.

I am staying home from work tomorrow, just in case. It looks like Brendan will stay home sick, and if Lynn is still sick, too, she may be home as well. I don’t want to force her to take care of a sick kid while she is sick herself, so I will take off. If everyone is feeling better tomorrow, well, I get a day home to myself and it’s all to the good.

Saturday, 30 October 2004

The final days

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 9:00 am

The Osama Bin Laden tape seems to have knocked the missing explosives story out of the headlines, thankfully so some would say. It is interesting to note one more thing before this story disappears entirely.

Interestingly, by yesterday afternoon the Pentagon and the Bush campaign (is there any separation between the two anymore?) had changed their story. President Bush has a word for that on the campaign trail, but we’ll let that go. Instead of arguing as they had been for the last couple days that Saddam probably removed the explosives before the invasion, suddenly the tune changed and now the Pentagon began arguing that Americans had removed the explosives themselves.

The Pentagon brought forth a soldier who said he and his men had removed some 250 tons of material from Al Qaqaa. Under questioning, the soldier could not verify with certainty that the material he and his men removed was the explosives in question. He did not remember seeing IAEA seals, for example.

In the wake of the release of a tape of Osama Bin Laden speaking specifically about the American election, the story has mostly disappeared. I don’t know how much, or even if, Kerry supporters are worried about the release. Probably there is concern, but I think the Bush campaign should be far more concerned than the Kerry folks. This new message from our enemy reminds voters that he is still out there, that while we have been fighting in Iraq for the past year and six months, Osama has apparently been doing just fine.

On the other hand, the President has been receiving consistently bad news from Iraq for the past two weeks, and it has done nothing to move the polls in one direction or the other, so I don’t really expect this latest twist to have any effect there either.

It’s really pretty astounding to think that voters are so solid for either candidate. If there are undecideds remaining out there, my worry is that this year, with all its weirdness, they will break not for the challenger but for the incumbent. The New York Times today has a story about voters who voted for either Gore or Bush in 2000, but are switching their allegiances this year. Surprisingly, about 7% of voters who voted for Gore in 2000 are voting for Bush this year; and 11% of voters who voted for Bush in 2000 are voting for Gore this year. See the article Four Years Later, Voters Switch Sides.

The reason most often cited as a reason why a Gore voter would vote Bush this year seems to be that changing Presidents now, during war time, would be catastrophic. This is an old and potent argument. Americans have quite simply never voted out an incumbent during a period of war or national emergency. In the War of 1812, the White House burned and the politicians in Washington had to flee, yet James Madison was reelected in a surge of nationalism. Indeed the Federalist party, which had opposed the war, disappeared as a party in its wake.

This may be the year when old assumptions are overturned; however, I won’t be surprised if more people succumb at the last minute to the argument that during a war, the President should be allowed to finish the job. On the other hand, maybe the war has so damaged Bush that he will be the first war time President turned out of office; or maybe we have simply changed as a nation. Certainly, these past two weeks, the Conservative talkers on the radio have been lamenting the amount of support Kerry has received. They can’t believe it. Is this the America they know?

The odds have been against the challenger all along. If Kerry does win, this will be one of the great political miracles of history.

Friday, 29 October 2004

The “missing explosives” story suddenly has legs

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 10:02 am

Yesterday, Joshua Marshall at the Talking Points Memo mentioned that an NBC affiliate in Minnesota had videotape of U.S. troops searching the Al Qaqaa weapons dump on April 18, 2003 several days after the fall of Baghdad. The video clearly depicted them looking through large stores of explosive material.

This morning, MSNBC led with the story, bringing on Paul Bremer. At the same time the New York Times, MSNBC, and most every other news organization in the free world decided this was an important story and began running with it.

Just how important is it? If the timeline of events leading up to the disappearance is what matters, this video places the explosives in the facility after the fall of Baghdad, which means they disappeared while American forces were effectively in control of the country. The video clearly shows some soldiers from the 101st Airborne looking at materials. Other parts of the video show the IAEA seals on the doors, unbroken until our soldiers cut them and entered the facility. Former weapons inspector David Kay appeared on CNN and said the video seemed to prove incontestably that in at least this one bunker, there were indeed explosives still at the Al Qaqaa facility. He called the IAEA seals “damning evidence.” More of what Kay had to say can be read at the Times, in the article Video Shows G.I.’s at Weapons Cache.

It will be interesting to see how the administration responds to this today. On the Today show this moning, Matt Lauer went after Bremer pretty tough on this matter. I am off work today, and my wife called me downstairs to watch. She was excited because Bremer looked like the proverbial deer in the headlights. He kept saying “We don’t know all the facts.” Lauer kept insisting that this video clearly showed our troops with the explosives on April 18. Bremer would not alter his response. He looked piqued, to say the least. I am sure once the Administration puts out its response, he will quickly be back on message; after all, once the President has spoken, his followers will have the “facts” Bremer so desperately wants.

How will the Administration respond to this? I predict they will dispute the date. They may also bring out members of the 101st to contradict the video. I heard one former member of the 101st on the Neal Boortz show yesterday saying the missing explosives story was all a political ploy and that the explosives were gone by the time they arrived.

Perhaps the Administration will say that the explosives shown in the video constitute only a small amount, and that while there may have been some at the facility, most was already gone.

However, as David Kay said on CNN, what the video shows is that American troops found “some” explosives but did not secure the facility before leaving. Indeed, the reporters who shot the video said as the troops left some Iraqis in a pickup truck were already scoping out the facility but were apparently chased away by the soldiers. Then the 101st left.

Is it the troops’ fault the weapons were not secured? This is what Mr. Bush suggested Mr. Kerry was saying in his criticism of the administration. And I think it is right for Kerry to point out that the President is simply using our armed forces as a shield to deflect criticism from his record. What this story does is add further proof to the contention that there were not enough troops in Iraq to secure the country following the invasion. It all goes back to the initial planning, or lack of it, and that is where Kerry needs to focus in his criticism. This is just another stitch in the pattern of incompetence of this administration.

Thursday, 28 October 2004

More useless election trivia

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 2:44 pm

Considering that even the mainstream media is admitting that polling is absolutely worthless (Playing the numbers), here is a bit of election poll trivia.

Earlier in October, Nickelodeon ran an on-line poll called “Kids Pick the President.” John Kerry was chosen overwhelmingly with 57% of the vote.

However, as Mort Kondrake reported on Brit Hume’s Fox program, “Special Report,” a Weekly Reader poll of children found that President Bush was favored by 65%. Weekly Reader has correctly predicted the results of Presidential elections going back to 1956, according to their web site. Nickelodeon has correctly predicted the outcome of Presidential elections since the station began broadcasting in 1988.

The theory behind polling children is that they are in tune with what their parent’s are saying around the house, and they simply mimic their parents’ point of view (a debatable contention; I guess it depends on the age of the child).

These polls are highly un-scientific, but I am staking my reputation on the Nickelodeon poll being correct. Here is my theory: Nickelodeon polls kids who watch TV, who are probably more middle class and lower middle class and thus more likely to live in Democrat households. The Weekly Reader poll draws its sample from readers of its educational magazines and from teachers who enlist their students to participate. I think its results will be more skewed towards upper class children, who are more likely to live in Republican households. Just a theory.

Both polls over sample. From what I understand of polling, more than 1,000 participants and the results become skewed. I don’t fully understand why, but I’ve read that somewhere in this election season, probably in the New Yorker article on John Zogby which I read. The Weekly Reader poll includes votes from 327,707 children. The Nick poll included over 400,000 votes. It was conducted on-line. Meaning there were probably many, many adults secretly creating Nick accounts for themselves so they could vote. “How old are you?” 5. “What’s your favorite Nick program?” Ummm, the Flintstones?

I know this because my wife voted in the Nick poll.

Well, at least we actually watch the programming. We watch Spongebob of course, but our favorite is Fairly Odd Parents. It’s actually a really good show. I sometimes find myself watching it even when my son is not around. It abounds with references to Star Wars and the Lord of the Rings and other geek obsessions.

Even given the flaws in the polling of children, can they be any more inaccurate than the “real” polls? If pollsters are still relying on the old “out of the blue” phone solicitation to get an accurate picture of the American electorate, how can we trust these numbers any more than an online poll done by a children’s cartoon network?

Redskins’ Taylor Charged With DUI (washingtonpost.com)

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 2:20 pm

If Taylor is out of the game on Sunday, that is actually great news for John Kerry. The Post reported this morning (A Sunday Win May Foreshadow Tuesday’s Victory) that the fate of the Redskins in their last Home game before an election is statistically tied to the outcome of the election.

If the Redskins lose the last home game before the election, the incumbent loses the election. If they win, the incumbent wins. Thus it has been since the Redskins moved to Washington in 1936, without fail.

I imagine there are many Redskins fans who are also John Kerry supporters who are deeply conflicted right now.

Me, I could care less about sports. I am superstitious, though. I think the Red Sox besting the Cardinals in the World Series may indeed be a forecast of next Tuesday’s election. An underdog New Englander bests the son of the Mid-West … sounds like a good deal to me.

Breakfast dal trashcan

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 8:05 am

Question: is a street musician a panhandler, or does the term “panhandler” only apply to beggars who accost you for money for breakfast or lunch or dinner, whatever the time of day happens to be?

Last week, I noted that in the Starbucks where I get my coffee in the morning, there was a small book of leaflets on the counter advising people not to give money to panhandlers. The association on the letterhead of the leaflet is a group organized to revitalize the Capitol Hill district. I glanced at it briefly, and it advised people to politely say “no” to panhandlers because giving them money only exacerbates the problem.

While I agree in theory with not giving money to beggars, it does not seem to me to be enough to simply encourage citizens to keep their money in their pocket. I rarely see anyone give money to beggars, but the problem does not go away. I also wonder if people may confuse street musicians, to whom I do give money occasionally, with ordinary panhandlers. There is a fellow who sometimes plays Mozart on the violin at the bottom of the escalators in Union Station. He plays quite well, too, though he dresses pretty shabbily. I always toss at least a dollar into his violin case, when I see him there.

Then again, there is another fellow who sometimes stands outside Union Station near Columbus Fountain. He blows unrecognizable tunes on a child’s plastic flute while he dances a jig. I am often tempted to give him money for his effort, but I don’t know whether I ought to or not.

This morning on my walk to Starbucks, I saw a beggar digging in a trash can. He came up with something that looked like Chinese noodles which he greedily stuffed into his foul gob. I am embarrassed to say, my stomach lurched, and if I had eaten breakfast it probably would have come up right there on the street. It was one of the most disgusting things I’ve ever seen in my life.

The past three days, I have seen the same beggar lady here on the Hill. She must be new, because I have never noticed her before. I have not a clue how these people get around, or what their day is like. She is a real old gammer, a veritable crone from a fairy tale. She wears an American flag kerchief around her head, an old lady’s pink sweater, and a pale green dress. She carries several plastic shopping bags which look like they contain more clothes, though in the past three days she has worn the same outfit. She carries a walking stick which she has decorated rather like a May pole. Around it, she has tied many ribbons of plastic tape, some of it yellow like crime scene tape, some of it pink and orange, like the tape wrapped around construction sites.

When I saw her first on Tuesday, after work, she was digging with her stick around the trunks of the small trees growing up out of the sidewalk. She was muttering to herself as she worked intently, scarping away all leaves and debris from around the tree. When she would finish clearing from around a tree, she would step off the sidewalk and scrape in the leaves in the gutter, to what purpose I could not tell; then she would step back on the sidewalk and move to the next tree, talking to herself all the while, sometimes laughing uproariously.

Yesterday morning, I was surprised to see her get on my morning bus at First and D streets. She did not pay or show a transfer, as best I could tell. She sat down across the aisle from me. There was only myself and one other man on the bus that early in the morning. There was not a single streak of daylight showing in the East.

Immediately, she began having a conversation with herself, but as she talked, she was looking at the other man on the bus. He looked at her intently at first, as if he thought she was really talking to him, then kind of looked away with a flicker of confusion on his face. The bus driver was apparently watching this in his mirror, for he spoke up and said to the man, “What’s your girl back there saying?” The man answered, “I don’t know but she sure has a lot to say, don’t she?”

Indeed she was yammering away. I heard her say in her cracked crone’s voice, “You men are just awful!” and “Pull up your panties.” The other man got up and moved to the very front of the bus. I stayed put; I wanted to hear what she was saying, but even sitting so close it was difficult to hear. She was muttering to herself, mostly. Aside from those two complete sentences, I could only catch random phrases. She was still riding the bus when I got off.

This morning, she got on again, at the same stop. This time there were more people on the bus, and she sat farther away, but she still carried on a complete conversation with herself. She got off the bus with me … and stepped right into the street without so much as a thought for cars. I thought sure she was going to be hit. “Wait!” I said, but she crossed as unconcerned as if she were in the park, teetering along on her faithful walking stick. Luckily, the approaching car saw her, and the driver was not the ordinary D.C. driver who speeds up when he sees a pedestrian in the street.

It was after this, as I walked down the street to Starbucks, that I saw the man stuffing noodles from the garbage into his maw.

City life is surreal sometimes. Yesterday, there was apparently a drag queen footrace at Dupont circle. In the small towns and rural areas of Virginia and Maryland, the most extraordinary thing one might see is a fellow standing at an intersection holding a sign that says “Down on luck. Will work for food.” Not long ago, I saw a woman standing at the exit from the Wal-Mart shopping center holding such a sign. She stood there one day and then was gone. They don’t bide long in the hinterlands. The cities are more hospitable places for them, I guess.

Wednesday, 27 October 2004

Photo iPod and U2 Special Edition

Filed under: — @ 5:17 pm

Yesterday, Apple released two new iPod models, the iPod U2 Special Edition, and the iPod Photo.

The former offers nothing substantially different, unless you consider the engraved names of the U2 bandmembers to be a “feature” rather than a bug. It is a different color, but that is hardly a selling point. The color scheme is black with a red scroll wheel. This iPod is ugly, but it will probably have a strong secondary market on eBay.

The price, at $349.00, is a little bit more than its non-Special Edition 20 GB counterpart. Buyers will also receive an Exclusive U2 poster and a $50.00 gift certificate for the purchase of the entire iTunes catalog of U2 songs, which is priced at $149.00. So, if you want to buy this iPod, then drop another hundred on music you, as a U2 fan, probably already own on CD, go ahead. Seems like a waste to me.

The iPod Photo also seems to me to be a product that has no real market. It offers a color screen and the ability to view one’s photos. If one is using a Mac, one’s iPhoto library can be synced to the iPod. Via an included AV cable, one can also view a slideshow of one’s photos on a television set. Personally, I store my photos on my iPod. I see no real need to look at them on my iPod. But then again, I had my doubts about the success of the iPod when it first came out. Now I own two and am a devoteee.

The problem to my mind is that the 40 GB base model Photo iPod starts at $499.00, $100.00 more than the non-photo 40 GB model. The high-end 60GB model is $599.00. Thus these prices are right back in the price range where the iPod began in 2001, that is, out of most people’s income bracket. The non-photo models remain priced at $299.00 for the 20 GB and $399.00 for the 40 GB, and of course there is the iPod mini on the low end at $249.00, so I guess there are iPods for the masses. However, I like to see the price on the iPod come down, not go up because Apple added features of negligible worth.

All the signs say … we’re lost

Filed under: — greypilgrim @ 3:18 pm

I am warming a bit to the subject of politics again.

I need to issue a correction. I said in a reply to a comment on my most recent post that no poll has Kerry ahead. I don’t know how I missed this, but the WashingtonPost/ABC poll has Kerry up by two points. Kerry is at 50%, Bush at 48%. I do know how I missed this, actually. I am so used to seeing Kerry at around 46 or 48%, it did not immediately register that he and Bush had switched places.

The question is whether this momentary lead means anything. The New York Times, which offers an electoral vote count and a map to go with it, may be more relevant. Kerry is behind by two electoral votes. Monday, he was ahead, but since then the Times has taken Colorado out of the “toss up” category and made it a “leaning towards Bush” state.

In the past two days I’ve had several conversations with Republicans and Democrats alike about the election. The Democrats I have spoken to are of the nail-biter, hand-wringer type, who believe a great, silent cabal of Republican voters are going to rise up on election day and dash their hopes of a Democrat victory. My wife is numbered among these fatalists. Republicans are far more self-assured, also believing in the great, silent cabal of Republican voters who will rise up on election day and dash the hope of a Kerry victory.

Republicans are also very bitter about the press coverage the President has been receiving this past week. The New York Times story about the explosives missing from the Al Qaqaa munitions dump, has really rankled. Currently, the debate is over whether the explosives were already gone by the time troops arrived at Al Qaqaa. Conservatives have already accepted it as gospel that the munitions were gone, but even Fox News has been forced to report that there is still some uncertainty about the matter. Reporters who accompanied the troops said the main goal was to get to Baghdad, not to stop and search for explosives. Whether or not there were explosives there, no one was left behind to gaurd Al Qaqaa until a thorough search could be made. Thus again, the issue of “not enough troops” arises.

Eveything rankles the Republicans these days, though. It can’t be that things are really so bad in Iraq, or that the President is really so incompetent. No, it’s the fault of the fall-back scapegoat “the media.”

I think the one story of recent days that would sway me, if I were an undecided voter, is the story of the 49 Iraqi National Guardsmen who were executed shortly after leaving their graduation from training. The companion story to this was the Iraqi Prime Minister’s placing blame on American negligence for the slaughter.

The way Fox News covered that part of the story is interesting. While most everyone else was interpreting Allawi’s remarks as blaming the Americans or the coalition, Fox stressed that what Allawi had said was “multi-national forces,” as if he were spreading the blame around to Poland—yes, we daren’t forget Poland—or Nepal (Nepal does have a small contingent in Iraq, very small) as well as America.

This story was truly tragic, and combined with recent reports that the Iraqi Guard has been successfully infiltrated by the enemy, it should inspire doubts in any reasonable person’s head about whether anything like the peace and democracy we originally envisioned for Iraq is possible.

Faced with all this, the Republicans I have talked to are not watching much of the news. “It’s just too biased; they’re all out to get Bush now; they’ve fallen right in line behind Kerry,” one told me. Instead, like their President, who governs by “gut” and for whom remaining “strong” and “resolute” substitutes for reason and logic, these Republicans are relying on Faith to see them through.

Democrats, too, see bias in the media, but not the way Republicans see it. It seems like any positive story about “the other guy” gets translated in terms of “media bias.” One wonders that reporters who genuinely desire to be fair don’t lock up tight as George Bush in a debate when faced with the prospect of writing a story. Still, it seems to me there is enough media bias to go around for Democrats and Republicans alike.

One of the funniest examples is the issue of polls. Fox News always has Bush ahead, and whoever reports the poll results usually does so by using phrases such as “widening his lead” or “breaking out” or “gathering momentum.” On his Sunday night radio program, Drudge reported that Zogby had Bush ahead by eight points. My heart fell! When I went to the Internet, I could find no evidence of such a point spread. I have no idea which bodily orifice he pulled those numbers out of, but he must have been digging somewhere deep, maybe for the point spread between Bush and kerry among apocalyptic, Charismatic Christians who own unregistered firearms. As well as Zogby, MSNBC and most other news networks insist the race is a statistical tie as well.

Talk about discordance, try watching Fox New’s “Special Report” with Brit Hume from six to seven, then turn on Chris Matthews on MSNBC from seven to eight. After becoming disheartened watching “Special Report” last night, I skipped Chris Matthews and watched “The Daily Show,” then came back to MSNBC for Keith Olbermann at eight, a show I rarely watch. It did my heart good last night. He led off with all the bad news for Bush, and by the end of the program I was feeling pretty good again.

I don’t know whether it is Fox or MSNBC that is reporting the news from Bizarro world, but I tend to stick with MSNBC after 7:00 because MSNBC keeps hope alive for the candidate I have chosen to back. Fox seems to have already consigned him to the ranks of the forgotten, alongside McGovern, Muskie, and Dukakis.

Each to his own biased news report, I guess.