A Pilgrim’s Digression

By most media accounts, the 2008 Democratic primary is all but over. Obama has won the last ten primaries, in some cases by large margins of victory. The Clinton campaign is “fading,” according to the AP. Other media outlets have told us, again and again, that the March 4 primaries will be “make or break” and “do or die” for Clinton.

Thus the stage is set for a spectacular Clinton comeback in Texas and Ohio.

Don’t be surprised if it happens. Conservative pundits I listen to are still predicting that Hillary will win the nomination. To some extent, their belief is motivated by an almost irrational view of the Clintons as so power-hungry that they will stop at nothing to take back the White House. Exactly how they would overcome the votes of millions of Democrats who have chosen Obama as their candidate is unclear, but it usually involves blackmailing and/or bribing Super Delegates.

However, looking at the election realistically, I don’t think we should count Hillary out until she formally withdraws. Nor do I think the media has the story about the March 4 primaries exactly correct.

The thing to remember is that a cable news station thrives on suspense as much as any network TV drama. Cliffhangers bring people back next week, and the week after. And as long as the primary election can be portrayed as a cliffhanger (”Tune in March 4 to find out if Hillary Clinton survives”), ratings will stay in the stratosphere. The election may be two weeks away, but junkies like me will still tune in to hear Bill O’Reilly, David Brooks, Chris Matthews, and a plethora of other pundits tell us the same thing over and over again: March 4 is “do or die” for Hillary Clinton.

You get the point, don’t you? If Clinton succeeds in pulling her irons out of the fire on March 4, it will be the biggest comeback since Harry Truman was prematurely written off as an ex-President. And the media will be able to report on it in bold exclamations and hours and hours of commentary. Obama will be thrown off stride, just as Hillary has been thrown off her stride by his wins and the media’s endless reporting on her campaign’s death throes.

Meanwhile, if she wins, the tag line underneath the talking heads will have to be changed. Is the Mississippi primary on March 11 “do or die” for Barak Obama? Tune in to find out what our talking heads have to say.

“Chris, March 11 is make or break for Barak Obama. He has to win Mississippi to prove that his momentum hasn’t faltered. It’s all or nothing on March 11.”

On and on it goes.

The fact is that there probably is no “make or break” primary election, now. Neither of the two candidates will be able to win enough votes to achieve the needed delegate count. This may well be a primary that is decided by Super Delegates rather than the popular vote. In a way that would be ironic, given Democratic frustrations with the 2000 election and the way in which the popular vote was thwarted by political insiders and judges. Yet even more ironically, it is that thwarting of the popular will that is Hillary Clinton’s best hope for success.

How else to explain her plea that Super Delegates “exercise independent judgment,” rather than voting for the candidate their constituencies chose? She cannot win, now, without the Super Delegates overriding the votes of ordinary Democrats. One might suggest to her that nine Supreme Court Justices also used their “independent judgment” in handing the 2000 election to George Bush? I suspect such a comment would not go over well.

Interestingly, in the article linked to above Clinton also suggests that the nomination battle will last well into summer and will probably go to the convention. What she leaves unstated is that it doesn’t have to be that way. She could always cede the field. Every indication is that she has no intention of doing that, no matter whether she keeps losing or not. I suspect she still believes she will be nominated by the fiat of the Super Delegates, and that once the decision is made by the party elders, everyone else will fall in line behind her. Obama will have to wait his turn, and she will be free to wage her lackluster campaign based on “results” and “solutions” against the equally lackluster geezer John McCain.

We may have a few more cliffhangers ahead of us before the candidate is chosen; however, if Hillary Clinton is able to wrench the nomination from Obama, largely due to the media prematurely writing her obituary, 2008 is going to be a long and very typical American campaign season. Get ready for a snooze as Clinton and McCain debate the minutaie of health care reform.

Goodbye Super Obama Girl.  Hello Big Sister.